Sentinel: simulation that never stops

Most operational simulations are run manually, one at a time. Sentinel runs them continuously and surfaces the decisions your team didn't know to ask.

Automation

Maintenance

Supply Chain

AI

AI

Laman 🦙

Apr 30, 2026

AI

Automation

Maintenance

Supply Chain

AI

AI

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Operations teams in asset-heavy industries spend most of their week running scenarios that should have run themselves. A demand change, a maintenance event, a supplier slip each one triggers days of manual modelling across spreadsheets and planning systems that weren't built to talk to each other. By the time the analysis lands, the situation has moved.

AVIR Sentinel changes the shape of this work. It runs simulations continuously, in the background, across every dependency in your operation and surfaces the P0 actions your team would have missed.

Why most simulation tools fall short

Three things break in how operational simulation works today.

  1. Simulations are manual. A planner picks a scenario, runs it, reads the output, picks the next one. The space of "what could happen" is vast. The space of "what actually got modelled this week" is whatever three or four scenarios someone had time to run.

  2. Cascades get simplified away. Change one parameter and the effects propagate across inventory, capacity, cost, coverage, and timing. Modelling all of it takes a week. So teams model the first-order effect and accept the rest as risk.

  3. Outputs are scenarios, not actions. Planning tools return numbers in cells. Translating that into "what do we do, in what order, at what cost" is a separate exercise usually in someone's head.

The result: teams operate on the scenarios they had time to run, miss the ones they didn't, and find out about cascading consequences after they've already happened.


What Sentinel does differently

Sentinel runs continuously. Every minute, it sweeps the dependency graph of your operation programmes, parts, hubs, suppliers, fleet assets, schedules — and simulates the cascade of every change as it arrives.

When it finds a decision worth surfacing, it ranks it. Cost impact, risk impact, coverage impact already calculated. Sequencing already mapped. The operator approves. The system executes.

The shift: your team stops asking Sentinel questions. Sentinel surfaces the questions worth asking.


Supply chain: the demand change that triggers a week of work

A customer adjusts a programme from 10 units to 12. In a traditional setup, this is five days of meetings, BOM pulls, hub stock checks, supplier calls, and financial modelling.

Sentinel cascades the change in one pass: BOM expansion across every part, stock position across every hub, supplier capacity against the new pull-through, transfer cost against logistics and lead time, financial exposure if no action is taken. Output: a ranked list of actions ready to approve.

Fleet: the unplanned event you didn't catch in time

A maintenance event takes an asset offline mid-cycle. Sentinel cascades the impact across availability, mission readiness, redeployment options, intervention cost, and timing. Output: move this asset, accelerate this maintenance window, defer this lower-priority mission.


The P0 you didn't know to look for

This is the real shift. While your team works on the obvious, Sentinel runs in parallel — surfacing things like:

  • A supplier whose lead time has drifted 8 days across the last quarter, putting a programme at risk no one has flagged yet

  • An export-control compliance gap on three parts that becomes blocking in 14 days

  • An inventory imbalance across hubs costing rent on excess at one location while creating shortfall risk at another

  • A demand pattern shift that makes a current safety stock policy 30% over-buffered

You didn't ask. Sentinel saw it.


How it works

  1. Dependencies as a graph. Sentinel models programmes, parts, hubs, suppliers, and assets as a connected graph. When anything changes, it knows what touches it and how far the change propagates.

  2. Parallel simulation. Instead of running scenarios one at a time, Sentinel sweeps dozens of variations across demand, capacity, lead time, and cost simultaneously. The underlying logic comes from reinforcement learning — scoring sequences of actions across a horizon, not single points in isolation.

  3. Ranked actions, not scenarios. Outputs are decisions ready to execute, with cost, risk, and coverage impact pre-computed. Operators approve; they don't translate.

Continuous operation. Sentinel doesn't wait to be asked. It runs against your live data 24/7 and surfaces P0 actions as they emerge.


What it enables

  • Explore the full decision space instead of sampling 3-4 scenarios a week

  • Catch cascading consequences before they become surprises

  • Collapse the gap between analysis and action outputs are decisions, not data

  • Shift planner time from manual modelling to approval and judgement

The cost of being wrong drops because the cost of finding out drops to near-zero. Sentinel sees the consequences before you commit to the decision.

Impact Generated

  1. Decisions that took 5–7 days now run in real time — under 60 seconds for most cascade simulations

  2. 40–60% reduction in planner time spent on manual scenario modelling, redirected to higher-value judgement

  3. 15–25% reduction in inventory carrying cost through continuous rebalancing across hubs

  4. Up to 30% reduction in expedite and emergency logistics spend by catching shortfall risk weeks earlier

  5. 3–5x increase in scenarios evaluated per week, surfacing decisions teams previously missed entirely

  6. AOG and stock-out exposure cut by an order of magnitude when continuous simulation catches lead-time drift before it becomes a crisis

Involved Topics

Automation

Maintenance

Supply Chain

AI

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